Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.185020 0.207977 0.232791 0.261627 0.294243 0.330018 0.372277
2025-11-16 0.142654 0.171506 0.204942 0.246632 0.297329 0.357118 0.433187
2025-11-23 0.112943 0.144148 0.182630 0.233741 0.300102 0.383699 0.497549
2025-11-30 0.095617 0.128977 0.172558 0.233965 0.318758 0.432444 0.597644
2025-12-07 0.078116 0.110800 0.155801 0.222735 0.320555 0.459502 0.673994
2025-12-14 0.065893 0.097932 0.144255 0.216742 0.328490 0.496138 0.770280
2025-12-21 0.056263 0.087318 0.134307 0.211404 0.336368 0.533760 0.874668
2025-12-28 0.050461 0.081600 0.130800 0.215267 0.358934 0.597447 1.031819
2026-01-04 0.044345 0.074470 0.124005 0.212692 0.370444 0.644795 1.169951
2026-01-11 0.039809 0.069292 0.119639 0.213462 0.387665 0.704470 1.340809
2026-01-18 0.036363 0.065488 0.117053 0.216899 0.410089 0.776902 1.548925
2026-01-25 0.031706 0.058875 0.108564 0.208166 0.408216 0.803248 1.670917
2026-02-01 0.027341 0.052331 0.099534 0.197472 0.401667 0.821067 1.782764
2026-02-08 0.024308 0.047937 0.094010 0.192926 0.406956 0.864151 1.958693
2026-02-15 0.021616 0.043856 0.088558 0.187719 0.410062 0.903321 2.134512
2026-02-22 0.020122 0.042018 0.087403 0.191483 0.433508 0.991643 2.445906
2026-03-01 0.017903 0.038358 0.081944 0.184936 0.432425 1.023544 2.625092
2026-03-08 0.016238 0.035683 0.078253 0.181856 0.439030 1.075037 2.866550
2026-03-15 0.014769 0.033250 0.074778 0.178756 0.445082 1.126306 3.119177
2026-03-22 0.013966 0.032228 0.074370 0.183005 0.470378 1.231443 3.546845
2026-03-29 0.012879 0.030403 0.071841 0.181573 0.480633 1.298622 3.879704
2026-04-05 0.012056 0.029106 0.070417 0.182774 0.498239 1.389414 4.306452
2026-04-12 0.011422 0.028196 0.069827 0.186105 0.522404 1.503591 4.835598